Thursday, October 29, 2009

Global Warming: Another Malthusian Theory?

It's been about 2 years the term "global warming" rising on the surface. We've heard about pollution for a long time, but extends it to an extreme doom-day-theory like "global warming" just happens recently. It makes me wonder, is it another Malthusian fallacy?
In economic history, there is a guy, an economist, named Robert Malthus who predicted a global starvation. His logic was the growth of food is linear while the growth of humans is exponential (way faster than linear). The human population will outnumber food in no time. Well, after 200 years, we all still know there was no global starvation. He was failed to acknowledge techonological advancement that enable food (both veggies and animals) to grow a lot more even in a very small area. Now, the economists refer any failed prediction due to mistake to acknowledge technological growth as "The Next Malthusian."
I somehow have a feeling that global warming will be "The Next Malthusian" fallacy. Now, I am talking about global warming caused by human's activities, and not the natural cycle of earth's temperature. The invention of electricity, air, or the astonishing breakthrough in chemistry and engineering really calm me down from the threat of global warming in any foreseable future.
The only problem that those clean materials could not get more into public hands is the technology is still too expensive or at least more expensive than the old technology. And we all know, it is just a matter of time that this clean and environmental-friendly techonology will get cheaper and more convenient.
Another note, if I am not mistaken, the issue of global warming started to rise, or at least receive a huge attention in the media, really close to US presidential election. Well, I can't help but thinking that the issue is more politically driven than scientific evidence.
Relax, Al Gorians!! It doesn't mean I endorse irresponsible polluting acts. I just don't believe that it is right to use this issue to force people to make decision that is not efficient for them. If we can't afford hybrid car or electric car is still not an option, so be it. Let the technology advance to the level that those inventions become more affordable and make sense rather than forcing people to accept the premature technology.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

A Christian Economist: Oxymoron Yet Exists

Warning: this post was made at 2 o'clock in the morning, in the middle of stress and struggle against my insomnia. Thus, the chance that the content is systematic and coherent is pretty slim ^_^.

Couple weeks ago, I read C.S Lewis' Screwtape Letter, and I almost jumping out of the chair when I read this: Don't let humans to study physics or philosophy seriously, distract them to study economics instead. Kira2 begitulah kalo diparaphrase. Remember, C.S Lewis's Screwtape letter menggunakan reverse psychology dalam penulisannya karena itu menceritakan kisah setan senior mengajari setan junior (keponakannya) bagaimana mendistract manusia dari Tuhan. Dan according to Lewis, economics is one way to do it. And, I can't just shrug it off of my mind.

So, what's the big deal, you say? It's a big deal, especially for me, because I AM AN ECONOMIST AND A CHRISTIAN!!! Does it mean that I am not a true economist? I hardly believe that since I adore economics theories and its philosophies. Then, am I not a true Christian? I hope not!!!It's even worse than not being a true economist. So, what's wrong about economics such that C.S Lewis believes it actually distracts man from God? Let's see...

1. Economist adores efficiency. We always try to maximize the output using the minimum inputs due to scarcity of resources. Then, for us, it doesn't make sense that God chose a nation like Israel to be His people. They are not the strongest, or having the most numbers, or the smartest or even the most devoted one. Many many times, they rebelled and fell into idolatry. Also, look at the way God works. He built humans with free will as of 1 package. It is so not efficient since He gave us the potential to produce the undesirable output. We could choose not to love and obey Him.

2. Economist adores the "Invisible Hand." A true economist should be a big supporter of free market, an economic system that is powered by the accumulation of rational choices. Yet, Christianity says that God is omnipotent, He can do anything and no one can resist it and He is still at work even today till eternity.

Mungkin kalau aku berpikir lebih lama lagi aku bisa temuin more reasons. But, let's stop with these two points first and think about it. The case of efficiency. What is God's ultimate desirable output? I will say humans who freely choose to love Him. Okay, then what would be the input materials? first, of course, humans. Second, free will. Third, unconditional love, since human nature blocks our ability to love first but rather to love as a response, then it is necessary to have unconditional love to trigger the response. Then, the problem is actually not efficiency but rather we just don't get that God wants humans to love Him FREELY. Not just to love Him by design. He also doesn't face the problem of efficiency since all the inputs are abundant, not scarce as the necessary condition for efficiency to be raising as a problem. So yeah, for this first reason, it does make sense to be a christian economist.

The second premise, economist believes that everything that happens is actually an acumulation of infinitely many choices being made by infinitely many people. There is no space for God in human's life cycle. This, I believe, is a bigger issue and also, harder to answer than the first one. Is God really impotent in the economics? Now, let's break down the statement into more details. A free market is a system that is driven by rational choices made by humans. What rational choices? Choices to be prosperous or to be happy (fulfilled, content). Now, where did it come from? why humans think happiness is better than miseries? why prosperity is better than poverty? Bible answers it, because that's the way God intends human to be thinking. Look at the entire bible, richness is sometimes identified with God's blessing, even though there are also cases where being rich is also disadvantagous to get into heaven when the money becomes the master. It is true that God countlessly remind us to be aware of this threat. Money can easily deceive humans and enslave them and eventually memundurkan kita dari Tuhan. Yet, no one can deny that God does bless humans with prosperity. Tuhan menyuruh manusia untuk bekerja memenuhi kebutuhan hidup sejak Adam dikutuk dan dikeluarkan dari taman Eden, Paulus juga mengulangi perintah yang sama. So, if money is purely evil, then, it is impossible God tells us (or even COMMAND us) to work our sweat out to chase something purely evil. Thus, again, it does make sense that our "rational choices" to accumulate money is actually from God. God is actually the "invisible hand" who move humans to make the economic decisions, without violating their free will since it is just the way they have been built.

Well, I am not sure if I actually resolve the conflict between economist and christian here, but this is how I make peace of my struggle. I hope in the future I could develop more substantial and satisfactory arguments along my journey of faith. More notes to add, I call myself a christian economist and not an economist Christian, because I believe I am an economist with a perspective that yields to my Christian faith and not the other way around.

God bless you all