Thursday, October 29, 2009

Global Warming: Another Malthusian Theory?

It's been about 2 years the term "global warming" rising on the surface. We've heard about pollution for a long time, but extends it to an extreme doom-day-theory like "global warming" just happens recently. It makes me wonder, is it another Malthusian fallacy?
In economic history, there is a guy, an economist, named Robert Malthus who predicted a global starvation. His logic was the growth of food is linear while the growth of humans is exponential (way faster than linear). The human population will outnumber food in no time. Well, after 200 years, we all still know there was no global starvation. He was failed to acknowledge techonological advancement that enable food (both veggies and animals) to grow a lot more even in a very small area. Now, the economists refer any failed prediction due to mistake to acknowledge technological growth as "The Next Malthusian."
I somehow have a feeling that global warming will be "The Next Malthusian" fallacy. Now, I am talking about global warming caused by human's activities, and not the natural cycle of earth's temperature. The invention of electricity, air, or the astonishing breakthrough in chemistry and engineering really calm me down from the threat of global warming in any foreseable future.
The only problem that those clean materials could not get more into public hands is the technology is still too expensive or at least more expensive than the old technology. And we all know, it is just a matter of time that this clean and environmental-friendly techonology will get cheaper and more convenient.
Another note, if I am not mistaken, the issue of global warming started to rise, or at least receive a huge attention in the media, really close to US presidential election. Well, I can't help but thinking that the issue is more politically driven than scientific evidence.
Relax, Al Gorians!! It doesn't mean I endorse irresponsible polluting acts. I just don't believe that it is right to use this issue to force people to make decision that is not efficient for them. If we can't afford hybrid car or electric car is still not an option, so be it. Let the technology advance to the level that those inventions become more affordable and make sense rather than forcing people to accept the premature technology.

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